Seasonal predictions at INGV-CMCC: sensitivity to the improvement in ocean initial conditions

ALESSANDRI A., A. F. CARRIL, A. CHERCHI, P. DI PIETRO, S. GUALDI, S. MASINA, A. NAVARRA, E. SCOCCIMARRO AND A. TROCCOLI

Viena, Austria

Conferencia; EGU General Assembly; 2008

EGU (European Geosciences Union)

The impact of improved ocean initial conditions on the hindcast skill of the INGV (IstitutoNazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia)-CMCC (Centro Euro-Mediterraneo peri Cambiamenti Climatici) Seasonal Prediction System (SPS), developed under the EUprojects DEMETER and MERSEA, is investigated. The ocean initial conditions havebeen produced by means of a Reduced Order Optimal Interpolation procedure whichassimilated temperature and salinity profiles globally. Sets of 9 member ensemblehindcasts have been produced for the period 1992-2001 in order to assess the impactof the oceanic initial conditions thus produced. The improved oceanic initial conditionslead to increased skill in the prediction of ENSO in our system. In addition, theforecasts of the tropical storms activity over northern Indian Ocean and Eastern NorthPacific are also improved. Our results also indicate a considerable increased skill inboreal winter surface climate anomalies prediction. The present study is part of the researchefforts currently going on at INGV-CMCC in the framework of the EU projectENSEMBLES.