Forest fire emissions under climate change: impacts on air quality

CARVALHO A., MONTEIRO A,M FLANNIGAN M.., SOLMAN S., MIRANDA A., BORREGO C.

Bar Harbor, EEUU

Congreso; Seventh Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology (American Meteorological Society); 2007

American Meteorological Society

This study investigated the impact of climate change and future forest fire emissions on air quality over Portugal under the IPCC SRES A2 scenario. The MM5/CHIMERE was the applied air quality modelling system. The initial and boundary conditions were set by the HadAM3P model simulations for reference and future climate. In a changing climatic scenario forest fire activity over Portugal is responsible for an increase of the emitted pollutants to the atmosphere. This increase is closely related to the projections of area burned under future climate. Climate change alone is responsible for changes in the ozone and particulate matter levels in the atmosphere. Under the IPCC SRES A2 scenario, the O3 monthly mean levels in the atmosphere may increase almost 20 µg m-3 over Portugal in July. If the influence of future forest fire activity is considered, the O3 concentrations may rise 23 µg m-3 by 2100 but a decrease of almost 5.6 µg m-3 is detected over the main forest fire locations. Future forest fire emissions also clearly impact the PM10 concentration over Portugal influencing its plume pattern and presenting higher concentrations in the north and centre of Portugal. The performed analysis revealed that besides this significant increase of O3 and PM10 concentrations in the atmosphere under future climatic scenario and forest fire emissions, decreases may also be registered in specific regions over Portugal.