How could a difference of 0.5°C in global warming modify the mean and extreme climate conditions around Antarctica?

SAURRAL, RAMIRO I.; RAGGIO, GABRIELA A.; GULIZIA, CARLA N.

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY

JOHN WILEY & SONS LTD

Año: 2020

0899-8418

This paper quantifies the potential benefit of limiting the global warming to1.5C above the preindustrial level on the high-latitude climate of the SouthernHemisphere compared to 2.0C and above. A set of Coupled ModelIntercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate model experiments is used inorder to determine the mean projected changes in surface air temperature, sealevel pressure, surface winds and sea ice distribution over and around Antarc-tica. Alongside, changes in selected variables related to extremes (such as theannual number of extremely cold mornings and extremely cold days) are alsoquantified as a function of the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)considered reaching the given warming threshold. Physical mechanisms forthe projected variations in sea ice are proposed, including surface air tempera-ture, changes in low-level air temperature advection and meridional winds.Results show that there would be significant differences in the atmosphericand sea ice variable changes depending on the warming threshold and RCPconsidered, and that indeed keeping the global warming under 1.5C couldhave a noticeable impact particularly on the distribution of sea ice over the Southern Ocean.