INSTITUTO DE INVESTIGACIONES EN ENERGIA NO CONVENCIONAL
Unidad Ejecutora - UE
congresos y reuniones científicas
Global energy sustainability: brief analysis of World Energy Trilemma and prospective scenarios as tools for discussion
MANRIQUE, SILVINA M
Conferencia; The Energy and Materials Research Conference - EMR; 2016
Nova Lisboa University
The possibility of projecting changes in the values of the variables that integrate a particular energy context to the future, requires starting from a baseline, understood as the description (mainly quantitative) of the inicial starting situation, based on the main indicators defined. Reducing the complex energy reality of the global system - considering some of its intricate relationships with environmental, political, economic, social, institutional scenarios - to a set of variables and indicators that are quantifiable to define this starting scenario is not a simple task.A number of agencies and / or institutions such as the World Energy Council (WEC), International Energy Agency (IEA), Energy Information Administration (EIA), Beyound Petroleum (BP) and others, have made an effort to generate periodical reports of the "world energy outlook".In particular, the World Energy Council has also selected axes (energy and contextual performance), dimensions (availability, accessibility and acceptability) and indicators, constructing a World Energy Trilemma to order the analysis variables in a scheme with limits. The Trilemma refers to the complicated conflicting objectives that governments must resolve to ensure security of supply, social equity and mitigation of environmental impact with the restrictions imposed by each one of them.The complex energy reality can be quickly seen in Trilemma, taking as a starting point the concept of sustainable development that the United Nations popularized in the well-known Brundtland Report in 1987, based on three pillars: environment, society and economy. This Report constitutes the point of reference for each debate and / or search for redefinition of the concept. The Trilemma defines "a sustainable field of action" framed between three vertices that could equally be associated with these pillars mentioned, only that from an energetic perspective and on a base economist: economy-energy (availability), economy-society (accessibility) and economy-environment (acceptability), which will make it possible to finally estimate an Energy Sustainability Index (ESI) for each country. From the quantification of the indicators, it is possible to observe the variation of them in the time and to estimate trends at global level.In this context, the WEC proposes a second tool that complements the first one: the exploration scenarios, which reflect a range of possible outcomes depending on the application of certain policies and are designed to help different actors to deal with Energy Trilemma, opening a discussion table. That is, they are an alternative vision of the future that can be used to explore the implications of different sets of hypotheses and determine the degree of robustness of possible future developments. The WEC defines two equally possible scenarios: Jazz and Symphony. An analysis is presented on these tools and some brief reflections on aspects to be discussed in the search for global energy sustainability.