INTEC   05402
INSTITUTO DE DESARROLLO TECNOLOGICO PARA LA INDUSTRIA QUIMICA
Unidad Ejecutora - UE
artículos
Título:
Stochastic Programming Models for Optimal Shale Well Development and Refracturing Planning under Uncertainty
Autor/es:
CAFARO, DIEGO C.; GROSSMANN, IGNACIO E.; DROUVEN, MARKUS G.
Revista:
AICHE JOURNAL
Editorial:
JOHN WILEY & SONS INC
Referencias:
Año: 2017
ISSN:
0001-1541
Resumen:
In this work we present an optimization framework for shale gas well development and refracturing planning. This problem is concerned with if and when a new shale gas well should be drilled at a prospective location, and whether or not it should be refractured over its lifespan. We account for exogenous gas price uncertainty and endogenous well performance uncertainty. We propose a mixed-integer linear, two-stage stochastic programming model embedded in a moving horizon strategy to dynamically solve the planning problem. A generalized production estimate function is described that predicts the gas production over time depending on how often a well has been refractured, and when exactly it was restimulated last. From a detailed case study, we conclude that early in the life of an active shale well, refracturing makes economic sense even in low-price environments, whereas additional restimulations only appear to be justified if prices are high.