Spatial risk assessment of livestock exposure to pumas in Patagonia, Argentina

KISSLING, W. D.; FERNANDEZ, N.; PARUELO J. M.

ECOGRAPHY

WILEY-BLACKWELL PUBLISHING, INC

Año: 2009 vol. 32 p. 807 - 817

0906-7590

Livestock predation and associated human-carnivore conflicts are increasing worldwide and require the development ofmethods and concepts for risk assessment and conflict management. Here we use knowledge on habitat preference anddistribution of pumas and provide a first assessment of the spatial risk of livestock to puma depredation in Patagonianranches, Argentina. In an initial step, we developed a rule-based habitat model in a Geographic Information System(GIS) to predict the distribution of puma habitat at a regional scale in Patagonia. We then used empirically derivedpuma occurrence records from Patagonian ranches 1) to test our regional habitat predictions, and 2) to evaluate ifpaddock characteristics (vegetation cover, topography, and distance to roads) contribute to explain puma occurrenceswithin ranches. Finally, we simulated three livestock management scenarios differing in their spatial and seasonalallocation of livestock to paddocks, and compared the likelihood of livestock exposure to pumas among scenarios. At aregional scale, 22% of the study region was predicted to be suitable for puma home ranges. The greatest uncertaintyin these predictions resulted from assumptions on woody vegetation cover requirements at the home range scale.Within ranches, puma occurrences were positively associated with paddock topography, woody vegetation cover onpaddocks, and proximity to predicted regional puma habitat. Comparing the risk of predation by puma amongsimulated livestock management scenarios implied that rotating livestock during seasons may help to reduce thelikelihood of livestock exposure to pumas. Our results show the usefulness of rule-based habitat models for describingbroad-scale carnivore distributions and for aiding risk assessments to mitigate conflicts between predators and humanactivities.