Good and bad economic times: How do citizens react to economic cycles?.

MARÍA CELESTE RATTO

Maryland, Washington

Workshop; Workshop Fat Politics, Lean Politics: Political Survival in Good and Bad Economic Times.; 2015

Universidad de Maryland, College Park.

The study of elections, electoral behavior and the economy is central to political science. To date, most the research produced on these topics focuses on the experiences of the most politically stable and economically advanced democracies. Relatively little attention has been paid to this phenomenon in the developing world. That is, only a few studies have focused on countries with shorter democratic experiences and more volatile economic contexts. The aim of this paper is to explore how periods of economic booms and economic crisis affect the retrospective evaluations of Latin-American citizens about the economic outcomes of the incumbent. That is to say how the economic and political conditions facing Latin American voters affect subsequent voting behavior, political support, and electoral outcomes in the region. A hierarchical dataset from year 1996 to 2011 was employed. This dataset contains individual level data from Latinobarometer and contextual information from countries. The research focused on the use of the multilevel statistical technique in order to compare the performance of several contextual variables over economic perceptions at the same time. The collective findings will highlight similarities and differences between advanced democracies and Latin America, with the aim of generating theoretical advances in the study of elections and voting behavior in the developing world.