IIDYPCA   23948
INSTITUTO DE INVESTIGACIONES EN DIVERSIDAD CULTURAL Y PROCESOS DE CAMBIO
Unidad Ejecutora - UE
congresos y reuniones científicas
Título:
Economic voting in Latin America: A general model.
Autor/es:
MICHAEL LEWIS-BECK; MARÍA CELESTE RATTO
Lugar:
Buenos Aires
Reunión:
Congreso; The Second ISA Forum of Sociology; 2012
Institución organizadora:
International Sociology Association
Resumen:
Economics and elections have become a major research area in political science. For the advanced industrial democracies, the classic economic voting hypothesis has been consistently supported. Oddly enough, little is known about the economic vote in transitional democracies. Our purpose is to assess the link between economics and elections in Latin America, utilizing survey data (1996-2004) from sixteen countries. Two key research questions are addressed: the link of economic perceptions to economic reality, and the link of sociotropic retrospective economic evaluations to the vote. A fully specified model of vote choice is estimated, across Latin American democracies in a balanced survey pool. Special care is taken with regard to the issues of economic measurement, estimation and endogeneity. The results demonstrate that those Latin-American citizens with a more positive perception of the economy have a greater probability of voting for the incumbent. In this sense, the results contribute to the understanding of the accountability mechanism in Latin America.